Charleston, SC Real Estate Market Update July 12, 2010

Aug 14th 2010

Posted By: Brian Beatty @ 9:26am In: Market Update

There are presently 9971 Properties for sale in the CTARMLS. (6959 are single family homes)
1820 properties are still pending to close (remember, about 30% of these fail).
Approximately 600 new contracts were written in the month of June. (The end of the month had a bump in new contracts)
1027 Properties close in June (as expected) - the biggest month of closings since 2007. (July will likely see a 40% drop; my prediction)
30% of all sales were short-sales and foreclosures (estimate)
76% of all sales were under $300,000.

It does appear that some of the "tax credit hangover" is beginning to wane. This is a good thing. We saw a noticeable increase in showing activity and web traffic last week, with a considerable bump this past weekend. Most of the traffic is centered in the $300,000 and below range, but all ranges seem to have experienced a bit of a pick-up.

The best way to describe conditions over the next 6 months is, "bumpy." We'll see prices remain stable or decline only a modest amount (1-5%) under $300,000. Prices between $300,000 and $500,000 will likely be down 5-8%, and homes priced over $500,000 still have a lot of downward pressure as record foreclosures continue to mount and sweep through that segment.

If the housing market is an airplane, we're still on the runway getting the engines serviced. It looks (from all indicators) like we might be able to take flight again (sluggishly) by 2nd to 3rd quarter of 2011. That seems to mesh with all data, economic opinions and fundamental indicators.

I believe there are three key events that will lift the real estate market back to excitement again. Favorable change of power in the 2010 elections and in the 2012 elections, combined with REAL unemployment dropping below 8% again. Those three things can repair the sentiment and trust in Housing; there's not a prescription otherwise that can have a meaningful impact. It will still be more modest than in past years given the extremely tight and tightening mortgage credit markets.