Presently there are 9635 listings for sale in the MLS.  There are 1856 pendings.  There were an estimated 454 closings in February, which represents a 10% increase over January and a huge decline from last October/November.

Overall sales pace this year is down 6.34% - this in it of itself is a very discouraging number.  However, we are finding positive balance in the fact that the inventory seems to have peaked at 10% below where it was this time last year (total properties listed).  This is a good sign. 

Average days on market is 133 and climbing slowing.

While Median sales price is up 5% in the past four months, I believe that is mostly driven by lower interest rates, not by actual appreciation as some would have you believe. 

Average sales price is also up dramatically, but I believe both numbers are easily explained by the fact that more higher-end buyers are buying now than in the same periods a year ago.  The data being reported means nothing as to prices climbing. 

In order to sort out the conditions of today as compared to just four months ago, I did several like-kind mls comparables and found that homes have fallen .75% in the past four months.  At that pace, the average real depreciation I"m projecting for 2010 is -3%.  I believe this will be double that for homes over $400,000 (-6%) and -10% for homes from $500,000-750,000 and 15% for homes over $750,000. 

In other words prices will be flat through 2011 under $400k in most of our market, based on current trends, and prices above that will continue to fall for at least another 12 months. 

Good news?  The markets will normalize when inventory hits 12 months or less in each price category.

Bad news?  We have a long way to go to get there in condos and homes over $400,000. 

I'm keeping my eye on actual sales.  If they don't pick up soon and the market doesn't start closing more homes this Spring than currently, prices will fall beyond my forecast.

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