The market is playing manic-depressive on us right now.  On the positive front, April sales were up 7.5% and nearly 850 homes sold in Charleston; that was the best sales month in three years.  Pending sales continue to remain high, although they are falling (2443 total - down from an April high of nearly 2550).  The real story lies in the total inventory.  Total inventory has zoomed back to 10,044 homes in the Charleston Tri County as I had predicted a few weeks back it would.  This number is still climbing and will probably rest at 10,250 or so (staying there most of the year) before retreating below 10,000 for perhaps the last time this coming Winter.  All indications suggest that a flurry of foreclosures will hit the market as soon as June, but certainly by August through the balance of the year, representing the many people who stopped (or couldn't) pay their mortgage from as late as November 2008, through the middle of last year; A majority of the people (notice I say a "majority") who stopped paying their mortgage during the peak of this crisis, still haven't fully gone through foreclosure yet (as you can imagine, that's a big number).  In 2011, we'll see all the remaining folks, going into foreclosure, who have been using government intervention to keep their homes (although not making payments) or those whose defaults begin late year 2009 through this year. 

Given the inventory numbers (still rising), I can only ascertain that prices will continue to fall on everything above $250,000 (except Mt. Pleasant and Downtown, where I believe stability stops at $350,000 and higher).  Condos/townhomes will fall in value AT LEAST another 10% before a chance of bottom occurs. 

It is clear that any recovery in 2011 and 2012 will be anemic.  And, if the stock market doesn't stabilize soon, this, too will put more downward pressure on the real estate market by deflating consumer sentiment and confidence. 

One then might say, "thank you Brian for this uplifting Monday message.  Should I just jump off my roof now?"  "No!" would be the answer.  This information continues to point to the necessity for long-term decisions in regards to real estate.  If you cannot see yourself remaining with or in the property you currently hold for at least five years, the moral of the story is sell it now (Now is perhaps as good as it gets for a while) and put your financial and mental resources in something that is more positive, so that your financial future will be brighter than the many who wait for the market to return to "normal."  It is becoming clear that (at least for the next three years), that this market is, the new "normal."

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