According to RealtyTrac, there are presently around 3784 foreclosures in the Charleston area.  These are properties that are scheduled for auction, have a pre-foreclosure filing or are bank-owned. 

Generally, the average home in Charleston has declined by 5% in the past year.  The average home over $500k has declined by 10% (since April 2009).  Predictions are that home prices will fall approximately another 5% before we hit a firm bottom. 

There were approximately 700 closings in April 2010 (unofficial) in our market.  That's a 21% increase over 2009, almost all of which is attributed to the tax credit.  As a better barometer of the market, there were 79 closings over $450,000 (the less impacted prices of the tax credit).  That's a 17% improvement over last year.  Factoring out the first time buyers (which is only a guess), this tells me that there are approximately 5% more buyers on the market this April than last; an improvement, but not much of one. 

There are 2550 pendings/contingent properties.  Of this, our stats tell us that 20-30% of them will come back on the market.  But, nonetheless, this is the biggest number in 3 years.  May will be a big closing month.  However, May through July will likely be remarkably slow for new sales.  This will drive a Fall and Winter price decline due to lack of consumption of inventory which currently stands at 9869 - a nice drop from last weeks report - also driven by the tax credit and the 150 expired listings at the end of April. 

Listings will climb back to 10,300 by the end of the Summer and will fall below 10,000 for the final time this Fall/Winter as a recovery begins to shape up for 2011.  I can share with you my excitement that I no longer wish to report a listings number of 10,000 plus as it is terribly unhealthy.  I believe 2011 will market the "new beginning" on CTARMLS below 10,000.....By the third quarter of 2011, prices will have fallen and risen back to where they are today.  And, some appreciation is likely by 2012, although moderate as foreclosure numbers remain high. 

While these statements are best-guesses on current market data and are only reliable (but not scientific), it is fair to say that price will be the driving factor of our market for the next six-twelve months until a small sense of normalcy starts to return and waiting for less than 3 years for a better price is likely to result in disappointment.  Our marketing and hard work, on your behalf, are key too...We will continue those efforts and improve daily. 

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